PoliGov › 2026 Forecast › Wyoming

Wyoming 2026 Election Forecast

Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026

In Wyoming, Harriet Hageman (R) is all but certain to win the Senate race, Eric Barlow (R) is all but certain to win the governor's race, and the state's one House seat is rated Safe R, according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.

See Wyoming on the interactive map →

Wyoming Senate race

James W. ByrdDemocrat

<1%

Harriet HagemanRepublican

>99%

RatingSafe R

Projected marginR+31.9

80% rangeR+41.4 to R+22.5

Seat now held byRepublicans

Polling average: no general-election polls
Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
Fundamentals: R+38.5 (partisan lean R+23, national environment, incumbency) — 60%

Open seat (Lummis retiring)

Open on the Senate forecast map →

Wyoming governor's race

Kenneth CasnerDemocrat

<1%

Eric BarlowRepublican

>99%

RatingSafe R

Projected marginR+25.4

Seat now held byRepublicans

Polling average: no general-election polls
Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 40%
Fundamentals: R+27.7 (partisan lean R+23, national environment, incumbency) — 60%

Open on the governor forecast map →

Wyoming House races

Wyoming elects one at-large representative.

District	Democrat	Republican	Rating	Margin	Dem win
WY-ALLisa Kinney vs. Chuck Gray	Lisa Kinney	Chuck Gray	Safe R	R+28.9	0%

Open Wyoming on the House forecast map →

Other states

How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.