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Alabama 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Alabama, Barry Moore (R) is all but certain to win the Senate race, Tommy Tuberville (R) has a 98% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 1.2 of Alabama's 7 House seats (they hold 2 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Alabama on the interactive map →Alabama Senate race
- Polling average: R+14.0 across 4 polls (newest 10/28/2026) — 28% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 32%
- Fundamentals: R+22.5 (partisan lean R+15, national environment, incumbency) — 39%
Open seat (Tuberville running for governor)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Wess | Moore |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling | 10/28/2026 | 695 LV | 40% | 48% |
| The Alabama Poll | 10/20/2026 | 600 LV | 35% | 56% |
| RMG Research | 10/01/2026 | 800 RV | 33% | 54% |
| yes. every kid. foundation. | 8/04/2026 | 601 LV | 32% | 47% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Alabama governor's race
- Polling average: R+8.2 across 5 polls (newest 10/28/2026) — 37% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+19.5, the average of 8 forecasters — 30%
- Fundamentals: R+16.5 (partisan lean R+15, national environment, incumbency) — 33%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Jones | Tuberville |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling | 10/28/2026 | 695 LV | 45% | 48% |
| Cygnal | 10/20/2026 | 500 LV | 40% | 51% |
| The Alabama Poll | 10/20/2026 | 600 LV | 39% | 51% |
| RMG Research | 10/01/2026 | 800 RV | 37% | 50% |
| yes. every kid. foundation. | 8/04/2026 | 601 LV | 41% | 49% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Alabama House races
Alabama has 7 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 4 (1 vacant or new). The model projects about 1.2 Democratic and 5.8 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-1Clyde Jones Jr. vs. Jerry Carl | Clyde Jones Jr. | Jerry Carl | Safe R | R+24.7 | <1% |
| AL-2 FlipShomari Figures vs. Rhett Marques | Shomari Figures | Rhett Marques | Lean R | R+4.7 | 21% |
| AL-3Lee McInnis vs. Mike Rogers | Lee McInnis | Mike Rogers | Safe R | R+33.7 | 0% |
| AL-4Amanda Pusczek vs. Robert Aderholt | Amanda Pusczek | Robert Aderholt | Safe R | R+45.7 | 0% |
| AL-5Andrew Sneed vs. Dale Strong | Andrew Sneed | Dale Strong | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
| AL-6Maurice Mercer vs. Gary Palmer | Maurice Mercer | Gary Palmer | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
| AL-7Terri Sewell vs. Ammie Akin | Terri Sewell | Ammie Akin | Safe D | D+27.1 | >99% |
Open Alabama on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.