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Rhode Island 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Rhode Island, Jack Reed (D) is all but certain to win the Senate race, Helena Foulkes (D) is all but certain to win the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 2.0 of Rhode Island's 2 House seats (they hold 2 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Rhode Island on the interactive map →Rhode Island Senate race
- Polling average: D+26.4 across 4 polls (newest 10/20/2026) — 22% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 34%
- Fundamentals: D+26.5 (partisan lean D+8, national environment, incumbency) — 44%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Reed | McKay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embold Research | 10/20/2026 | 815 LV | 55% | 32% |
| Emerson College | 10/13/2026 | 800 LV | 59% | 25% |
| Univ. of New Hampshire | 9/24/2026 | 598 LV | 53% | 33% |
| Univ. of New Hampshire | 8/26/2026 | 750 LV | 51% | 31% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Rhode Island governor's race
- Polling average: D+27.6 across 4 polls (newest 10/20/2026) — 22% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 34%
- Fundamentals: D+15.7 (partisan lean D+8, national environment, incumbency) — 44%
Incumbent Dan McKee lost the Democratic primary
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Foulkes | Guckian |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embold Research | 10/20/2026 | 815 LV | 39% | 17% |
| Emerson College | 10/13/2026 | 800 LV | 48% | 12% |
| Univ. of New Hampshire | 9/24/2026 | 598 LV | 44% | 17% |
| Univ. of New Hampshire | 8/27/2026 | 750 LV | 40% | 15% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Rhode Island House races
Rhode Island has 2 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 0. The model projects about 2.0 Democratic and 0.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RI-1Gabe Amo vs. Kellie Keenan | Gabe Amo | Kellie Keenan | Safe D | D+29.5 | 100% |
| RI-2Seth Magaziner vs. Vic Mellor | Seth Magaziner | Vic Mellor | Safe D | D+19.9 | >99% |
Open Rhode Island on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.