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Louisiana 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Louisiana, Julia Letlow (R) has a 98% chance of winning the Senate race, and Democrats are projected to win about 1.0 of Louisiana's 6 House seats (they hold 2 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Louisiana on the interactive map →Louisiana Senate race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: R+17.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: R+14.5 (partisan lean R+11, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open seat (Cassidy lost renomination)
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Louisiana does not elect a governor in 2026.
Louisiana House races
Louisiana has 6 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 4. The model projects about 1.0 Democratic and 5.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA-1Lauren Jewett vs. Randall Arrington | Lauren Jewett | Randall Arrington | Safe R | R+30.1 | <1% |
| LA-2Troy Carter vs. Peter Williams | Troy Carter | Peter Williams | Safe D | D+45.1 | 100% |
| LA-3John Day vs. Kate Cotten | John Day | Kate Cotten | Safe R | R+27.7 | <1% |
| LA-4Conrad Cable vs. Gordon Heslop | Conrad Cable | Gordon Heslop | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
| LA-5Dan McKay vs. Stewart Cathey Jr. | Dan McKay | Stewart Cathey Jr. | Safe R | R+24.7 | <1% |
| LA-6 FlipPat Forbes vs. Monique Appeaning | Pat Forbes | Monique Appeaning | Safe R | R+23.5 | <1% |
Open Louisiana on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.