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Wisconsin 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Wisconsin, David Crowley (D) has a 78% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 3.2 of Wisconsin's 8 House seats (they hold 2 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Wisconsin on the interactive map →Wisconsin governor's race
- Polling average: D+5.4 across 8 polls (newest 10/28/2026) — 33% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+4.9, the average of 8 forecasters — 31%
- Fundamentals: D+4.5 (partisan lean even, national environment, incumbency) — 36%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Crowley | Tiffany |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette Law School | 10/28/2026 | 668 LV | 51% | 44% |
| YouGov | 10/16/2026 | 1,715 RV | 46% | 42% |
| Z to A Research | 10/09/2026 | 662 LV | 49% | 44% |
| Marquette Law School | 9/30/2026 | 692 LV | 49% | 46% |
| Marquette Law School | 8/26/2026 | 738 LV | 49% | 44% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Wisconsin has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Wisconsin House races
Wisconsin has 8 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 6. The model projects about 3.2 Democratic and 4.8 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI-1Mitchell Berman vs. Bryan Steil | Mitchell Berman | Bryan Steil | Toss-up | R+1.1 | 42% |
| WI-2Mark Pocan vs. — | Mark Pocan | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| WI-3 FlipRebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden | Rebecca Cooke | Derrick Van Orden | Tilt D | D+3.1 | 71% |
| WI-4Gwen Moore vs. Tim Rogers | Gwen Moore | Tim Rogers | Safe D | D+46.3 | 100% |
| WI-5Andrew Beck vs. Scott Fitzgerald | Andrew Beck | Scott Fitzgerald | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| WI-6Brad Smith vs. Glenn Grothman | Brad Smith | Glenn Grothman | Likely R | R+16.7 | <1% |
| WI-7Fred Clark vs. Michael Alfonso | Fred Clark | Michael Alfonso | Safe R | R+17.5 | <1% |
| WI-8Rick Crosson vs. Tony Wied | Rick Crosson | Tony Wied | Likely R | R+16.2 | <1% |
Open Wisconsin on the House forecast map →
Other states
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.