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Iowa 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Iowa, Ashley Hinson (R) has a 59% chance of winning the Senate race, Rob Sand (D) has a 83% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 2.1 of Iowa's 4 House seats (they hold 0 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Iowa on the interactive map →Iowa Senate race
- Polling average: R+0.4 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+1.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+4.5 (partisan lean R+6, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Open seat (Ernst retiring)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Turek | Hinson |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 2,020 LV | 50% | 49% |
| co/efficient | 10/29/2026 | 1,020 LV | 46% | 48% |
| Echelon Insights | 10/27/2026 | 403 LV | 45% | 43% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/23/2026 | 1,200 LV | 45% | 47% |
| New River / GSG | 10/21/2026 | 602 LV | 46% | 44% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Iowa governor's race
- Polling average: D+6.6 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+6.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+3.9 (partisan lean R+6, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Sand | Lahn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 2,020 LV | 53% | 46% |
| Echelon Insights | 10/27/2026 | 403 LV | 50% | 46% |
| New River / GSG | 10/21/2026 | 602 LV | 54% | 43% |
| National Public Affairs | 10/20/2026 | 678 LV | 50% | 45% |
| co/efficient | 10/19/2026 | 863 LV | 49% | 45% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Iowa House races
Iowa has 4 congressional districts. Democrats hold 0 and Republicans 4. The model projects about 2.1 Democratic and 1.9 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-1 FlipChristina Bohannan vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Tilt D | D+2.9 | 70% |
| IA-2 FlipLindsay James vs. Joe Mitchell | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Toss-up | D+1.4 | 60% |
| IA-3 FlipSarah Trone Garriott vs. Zach Nunn | Sarah Trone Garriott | Zach Nunn | Tilt D | D+4.3 | 78% |
| IA-4David Dawson vs. Chris McGowan | David Dawson | Chris McGowan | Safe R | R+22.3 | <1% |
Open Iowa on the House forecast map →
Other states
- Alabama
- Alaska
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- Idaho
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- New York
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- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.