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Oklahoma 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Oklahoma, Kevin Hern (R) is all but certain to win the Senate race, Mike Mazzei (R) has a 98% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 0.0 of Oklahoma's 5 House seats (they hold 0 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Oklahoma on the interactive map →Oklahoma Senate race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: R+26.5 (partisan lean R+17, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open seat (interim appointee not running)
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Oklahoma governor's race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: R+15.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: R+19.3 (partisan lean R+17, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open on the governor forecast map →
Oklahoma House races
Oklahoma has 5 congressional districts. Democrats hold 0 and Republicans 5. The model projects about 0.0 Democratic and 5.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OK-1John Croisant vs. Mark Tedford | John Croisant | Mark Tedford | Safe R | R+18.1 | <1% |
| OK-2Brandon Wade vs. Josh Brecheen | Brandon Wade | Josh Brecheen | Safe R | R+39.7 | 0% |
| OK-3Suzie Byrd vs. Frank Lucas | Suzie Byrd | Frank Lucas | Safe R | R+33.7 | 0% |
| OK-4Mitchell Jacob vs. Tom Cole | Mitchell Jacob | Tom Cole | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
| OK-5Jena Nelson vs. Stephanie Bice | Jena Nelson | Stephanie Bice | Likely R | R+16.0 | <1% |
Open Oklahoma on the House forecast map →
Other states
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- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.