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Georgia 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Georgia, Jon Ossoff (D) has a 97% chance of winning the Senate race, Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) has a 54% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 5.0 of Georgia's 14 House seats (they hold 5 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Georgia on the interactive map →Georgia Senate race
- Polling average: D+9.7 across 10 polls (newest 10/27/2026) — 47% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+14.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 27%
- Fundamentals: D+8.5 (partisan lean R+1, national environment, incumbency) — 26%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Ossoff | Collins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | 10/27/2026 | 508 LV | 55% | 40% |
| ActiVote | 10/20/2026 | 400 LV | 54% | 46% |
| Quantus Insights | 10/19/2026 | 755 LV | 53% | 45% |
| Trafalgar Group | 10/10/2026 | 1,101 LV | 51% | 43% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 9/25/2026 | 1,200 LV | 50% | 42% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Georgia governor's race
- Polling average: R+1.1 across 10 polls (newest 10/27/2026) — 56% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+1.9, the average of 8 forecasters — 25%
- Fundamentals: D+3.1 (partisan lean R+1, national environment, incumbency) — 20%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Bottoms | Jackson |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | 10/27/2026 | 508 LV | 49% | 48% |
| ActiVote | 10/20/2026 | 400 LV | 49% | 52% |
| University of Georgia | 10/20/2026 | 1,000 LV | 45% | 46% |
| Quantus Insights | 10/19/2026 | 755 LV | 48% | 49% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/14/2026 | 800 LV | 47% | 49% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Georgia House races
Georgia has 14 congressional districts. Democrats hold 5 and Republicans 9. The model projects about 5.0 Democratic and 9.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA-1Amanda Hollowell vs. Jim Kingston | Amanda Hollowell | Jim Kingston | Likely R | R+14.3 | 1% |
| GA-2Sanford Bishop vs. Matt Day | Sanford Bishop | Matt Day | Safe D | D+19.9 | >99% |
| GA-3Maura Keller vs. Brian Jack | Maura Keller | Brian Jack | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
| GA-4Hank Johnson vs. James Duffie | Hank Johnson | James Duffie | Safe D | D+47.5 | 100% |
| GA-5Nikema Williams vs. John Oscar Salvesen | Nikema Williams | John Oscar Salvesen | Safe D | D+58.3 | 100% |
| GA-6Lucy McBath vs. Kevin Martin | Lucy McBath | Kevin Martin | Safe D | D+45.1 | 100% |
| GA-7Tony Kozycki vs. Rich McCormick | Tony Kozycki | Rich McCormick | Safe R | R+19.4 | <1% |
| GA-8Kelly Esti vs. Austin Scott | Kelly Esti | Austin Scott | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
| GA-9Caitlyn Gegen vs. Andrew Clyde | Caitlyn Gegen | Andrew Clyde | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
| GA-10Pam Delancy vs. Houston Gaines | Pam Delancy | Houston Gaines | Safe R | R+18.1 | <1% |
| GA-11Chris Harden vs. John Cowan | Chris Harden | John Cowan | Safe R | R+19.0 | <1% |
| GA-12Ceretta Smith vs. Rick Allen | Ceretta Smith | Rick Allen | Likely R | R+15.3 | <1% |
| GA-13Jasmine Clark vs. Jonathan Chavez | Jasmine Clark | Jonathan Chavez | Safe D | D+38.5 | 100% |
| GA-14Shawn Harris vs. Clay Fuller | Shawn Harris | Clay Fuller | Safe R | R+28.9 | 0% |
Open Georgia on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.