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Kansas 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Kansas, Adam Hamilton (D) has a 52% chance of winning the Senate race, Ty Masterson (R) has a 71% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 1.0 of Kansas's 4 House seats (they hold 1 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Kansas on the interactive map →Kansas Senate race
- Polling average: D+3.2 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: Even, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+11.5 (partisan lean R+8, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Hamilton | Marshall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 2,092 LV | 50% | 49% |
| Emerson College | 10/30/2026 | 800 LV | 49% | 45% |
| Wash. Post-Schar School | 10/30/2026 | 801 LV | 52% | 43% |
| CNN / SSRS | 10/29/2026 | 838 LV | 49% | 45% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/16/2026 | 1,200 LV | 47% | 48% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Kansas governor's race
- Polling average: R+1.6 across 8 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+4.1, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+6.7 (partisan lean R+8, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Holscher | Masterson |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 2,092 LV | 49% | 50% |
| Emerson College | 10/30/2026 | 800 LV | 46% | 50% |
| Wash. Post-Schar School | 10/30/2026 | 801 LV | 51% | 45% |
| CNN / SSRS | 10/29/2026 | 838 LV | 45% | 50% |
| YouGov | 10/06/2026 | 2,252 LV | 44% | 47% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Kansas House races
Kansas has 4 congressional districts. Democrats hold 1 and Republicans 3. The model projects about 1.0 Democratic and 3.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS-1Lauren Reinhold vs. Tracey Mann | Lauren Reinhold | Tracey Mann | Safe R | R+25.3 | <1% |
| KS-2Don Coover vs. Derek Schmidt | Don Coover | Derek Schmidt | Likely R | R+15.2 | <1% |
| KS-3Sharice Davids vs. Eric Jenkins | Sharice Davids | Eric Jenkins | Safe D | D+17.5 | >99% |
| KS-4Katy Tyndell vs. Ron Estes | Katy Tyndell | Ron Estes | Safe R | R+20.5 | <1% |
Open Kansas on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.