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Maryland 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Maryland, Wes Moore (D) is all but certain to win the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 7.0 of Maryland's 8 House seats (they hold 7 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Maryland on the interactive map →Maryland governor's race
- Polling average: D+27.0 across 1 poll (newest 10/06/2026) — 5% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 39%
- Fundamentals: D+30.5 (partisan lean D+15, national environment, incumbency) — 56%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Moore | Cox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC Poll | 10/06/2026 | 776 LV | 51% | 24% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Maryland has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Maryland House races
Maryland has 8 congressional districts. Democrats hold 7 and Republicans 1. The model projects about 7.0 Democratic and 1.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD-1Dan Schwartz vs. Andy Harris | Dan Schwartz | Andy Harris | Likely R | R+15.1 | <1% |
| MD-2Johnny Olszewski vs. Dave Wallace | Johnny Olszewski | Dave Wallace | Safe D | D+27.1 | >99% |
| MD-3Sarah Elfreth vs. Berney Flowers | Sarah Elfreth | Berney Flowers | Safe D | D+29.5 | 100% |
| MD-4Glenn Ivey vs. George McDermott | Glenn Ivey | George McDermott | Safe D | D+61.9 | 100% |
| MD-5Adrian Boafo vs. Chris Chaffee | Adrian Boafo | Chris Chaffee | Safe D | D+33.7 | 100% |
| MD-6April McClain Delaney vs. Robin Ficker | April McClain Delaney | Robin Ficker | Safe D | D+18.7 | >99% |
| MD-7Kweisi Mfume vs. Scott Collier | Kweisi Mfume | Scott Collier | Safe D | D+52.3 | 100% |
| MD-8Jamie Raskin vs. Cheryl Riley | Jamie Raskin | Cheryl Riley | Safe D | D+51.1 | 100% |
Open Maryland on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.