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New Hampshire 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In New Hampshire, Chris Pappas (D) has a 94% chance of winning the Senate race, Kelly Ayotte (R) has a 91% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 2.0 of New Hampshire's 2 House seats (they hold 2 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See New Hampshire on the interactive map →New Hampshire Senate race
- Polling average: D+6.8 across 10 polls (newest 10/29/2026) — 60% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+8.8, the average of 12 forecasters — 24%
- Fundamentals: D+11.5 (partisan lean D+2, national environment, incumbency) — 16%
Open seat (Shaheen retiring)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Pappas | Sununu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Lowell | 10/29/2026 | 600 LV | 48% | 41% |
| Saint Anselm College | 10/22/2026 | 1,672 LV | 50% | 43% |
| National Public Affairs | 10/20/2026 | 600 LV | 50% | 43% |
| Saint Anselm College | 10/06/2026 | 1,042 LV | 51% | 44% |
| YouGov | 10/06/2026 | 1,519 LV | 51% | 43% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
New Hampshire governor's race
- Polling average: R+9.2 across 10 polls (newest 10/29/2026) — 56% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+11.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 25%
- Fundamentals: D+2.3 (partisan lean D+2, national environment, incumbency) — 20%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Warmington | Ayotte |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Lowell | 10/29/2026 | 600 LV | 42% | 48% |
| Saint Anselm College | 10/22/2026 | 1,672 LV | 42% | 50% |
| National Public Affairs | 10/20/2026 | 600 LV | 38% | 54% |
| Saint Anselm College | 10/06/2026 | 1,042 LV | 45% | 52% |
| YouGov | 10/06/2026 | 1,520 LV | 40% | 49% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
New Hampshire House races
New Hampshire has 2 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 0. The model projects about 2.0 Democratic and 0.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NH-1Stefany Shaheen vs. Anthony DiLorenzo | Stefany Shaheen | Anthony DiLorenzo | Likely D | D+12.0 | 98% |
| NH-2Maggie Goodlander vs. Lily Tang Williams | Maggie Goodlander | Lily Tang Williams | Safe D | D+17.5 | >99% |
Open New Hampshire on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.