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California 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In California, Xavier Becerra (D) is all but certain to win the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 47.8 of California's 52 House seats (they hold 43 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See California on the interactive map →California governor's race
Xavier BecerraDemocrat
100%Steve HiltonRepublican
0%RatingSafe D
Projected marginD+22.7
Seat now held byDemocrats
- Polling average: D+23.3 across 10 polls (newest 10/31/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+21.3 (partisan lean D+12, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Becerra | Hilton |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 10/31/2026 | 400 LV | 63% | 37% |
| PPIC | 10/28/2026 | 1,086 LV | 61% | 37% |
| SurveyUSA | 10/27/2026 | 799 LV | 54% | 32% |
| Emerson College | 10/21/2026 | 1,000 LV | 64% | 36% |
| ActiVote | 10/17/2026 | 400 LV | 63% | 37% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
California has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
California House races
California has 52 congressional districts. Democrats hold 43 and Republicans 7 (2 vacant or new). The model projects about 47.8 Democratic and 4.2 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-1 FlipMike McGuire vs. James Gallagher | Mike McGuire | James Gallagher | Safe D | D+19.9 | >99% |
| CA-2Jared Huffman vs. Robin Littau | Jared Huffman | Robin Littau | Safe D | D+30.7 | 100% |
| CA-3Ami Bera vs. Robb Tucker | Ami Bera | Robb Tucker | Safe D | D+22.3 | >99% |
| CA-4Eric Jones vs. — | Eric Jones | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| CA-5Michael Masuda vs. Tom McClintock | Michael Masuda | Tom McClintock | Safe R | R+18.5 | <1% |
| CA-6Richard Pan vs. — | Richard Pan | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| CA-7Doris Matsui vs. — | Doris Matsui | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| CA-8John Garamendi vs. Rudy Recile | John Garamendi | Rudy Recile | Safe D | D+37.9 | 100% |
| CA-9Josh Harder vs. John McBride | Josh Harder | John McBride | Safe D | D+24.7 | >99% |
| CA-10Mark DeSaulnier vs. Jeff Frese | Mark DeSaulnier | Jeff Frese | Safe D | D+36.7 | 100% |
| CA-11Connie Chan vs. — | Connie Chan | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| CA-12Jamie Joyce vs. — | Jamie Joyce | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| CA-13Adam Gray vs. Kevin Lincoln | Adam Gray | Kevin Lincoln | Likely D | D+14.8 | >99% |
| CA-14Melissa Hernandez vs. — | Melissa Hernandez | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| CA-15Kevin Mullin vs. Charles Hoelter | Kevin Mullin | Charles Hoelter | Safe D | D+46.3 | 100% |
| CA-16Sam Liccardo vs. Peter Soulé | Sam Liccardo | Peter Soulé | Safe D | D+45.1 | 100% |
| CA-17Ro Khanna vs. Ritesh Tandon | Ro Khanna | Ritesh Tandon | Safe D | D+40.3 | 100% |
| CA-18Zoe Lofgren vs. Shane Lewis | Zoe Lofgren | Shane Lewis | Safe D | D+34.3 | 100% |
| CA-19Jimmy Panetta vs. Peter Coe Verbica | Jimmy Panetta | Peter Coe Verbica | Safe D | D+36.7 | 100% |
| CA-20Sandra Van Scotter vs. Vince Fong | Sandra Van Scotter | Vince Fong | Safe R | R+25.3 | <1% |
| CA-21Jim Costa vs. Kyle Kirkland | Jim Costa | Kyle Kirkland | Safe D | D+20.2 | >99% |
| CA-22 FlipRandy Villegas vs. David Valadao | Randy Villegas | David Valadao | Lean D | D+7.7 | 91% |
| CA-23Tessa Lynn Hodge vs. Jay Obernolte | Tessa Lynn Hodge | Jay Obernolte | Likely R | R+16.9 | <1% |
| CA-24Salud Carbajal vs. Bob Smith | Salud Carbajal | Bob Smith | Safe D | D+30.7 | 100% |
| CA-25Raul Ruiz vs. Joe Males | Raul Ruiz | Joe Males | Safe D | D+19.9 | >99% |
| CA-26Jacqui Irwin vs. Sam Gallucci | Jacqui Irwin | Sam Gallucci | Safe D | D+24.1 | >99% |
| CA-27George Whitesides vs. Jason Gibbs | George Whitesides | Jason Gibbs | Safe D | D+22.3 | >99% |
| CA-28Judy Chu vs. April Verlato | Judy Chu | April Verlato | Safe D | D+31.9 | 100% |
| CA-29Angelica Dueñas vs. — | Angelica Dueñas | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| CA-30Laura Friedman vs. Scott Meyers | Laura Friedman | Scott Meyers | Safe D | D+40.3 | 100% |
| CA-31Gil Cisneros vs. Eric Ching | Gil Cisneros | Eric Ching | Safe D | D+24.7 | >99% |
| CA-32Brad Sherman vs. Larry Thompson | Brad Sherman | Larry Thompson | Safe D | D+31.9 | 100% |
| CA-33Pete Aguilar vs. Stephanie Vargas | Pete Aguilar | Stephanie Vargas | Safe D | D+23.5 | >99% |
| CA-34Jimmy Gomez vs. — | Jimmy Gomez | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| CA-35Norma Torres vs. Mike Cargile | Norma Torres | Mike Cargile | Safe D | D+22.3 | >99% |
| CA-36Ted Lieu vs. Houston Brignano | Ted Lieu | Houston Brignano | Safe D | D+40.3 | 100% |
| CA-37Sydney Kamlager-Dove vs. — | Sydney Kamlager-Dove | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| CA-38Hilda Solis vs. Pedro Casas | Hilda Solis | Pedro Casas | Safe D | D+22.9 | >99% |
| CA-39Mark Takano vs. Steve Manos | Mark Takano | Steve Manos | Safe D | D+23.5 | >99% |
| CA-40— vs. Ken Calvert | — | Ken Calvert | Safe R | R+60.0 | 0% |
| CA-41Linda Sánchez vs. Mitch Clemmons | Linda Sánchez | Mitch Clemmons | Safe D | D+25.9 | >99% |
| CA-42Robert Garcia vs. Brian Burley | Robert Garcia | Brian Burley | Safe D | D+24.7 | >99% |
| CA-43Maxine Waters vs. Cristian Morales | Maxine Waters | Cristian Morales | Safe D | D+47.5 | 100% |
| CA-44Nanette Barragán vs. Genevieve Angel | Nanette Barragán | Genevieve Angel | Safe D | D+39.1 | 100% |
| CA-45Derek Tran vs. Chuong Vo | Derek Tran | Chuong Vo | Safe D | D+17.9 | >99% |
| CA-46Lou Correa vs. David Pan | Lou Correa | David Pan | Safe D | D+27.1 | >99% |
| CA-47Dave Min vs. Jenny Le Roux | Dave Min | Jenny Le Roux | Safe D | D+22.3 | >99% |
| CA-48 FlipMarni von Wilpert vs. Jim Desmond | Marni von Wilpert | Jim Desmond | Likely D | D+12.1 | 98% |
| CA-49Mike Levin vs. Armen Kurdian | Mike Levin | Armen Kurdian | Safe D | D+23.5 | >99% |
| CA-50Scott Peters vs. Steve Cohen | Scott Peters | Steve Cohen | Safe D | D+27.1 | 100% |
| CA-51Sara Jacobs vs. Ricardo Cabrera | Sara Jacobs | Ricardo Cabrera | Safe D | D+27.1 | >99% |
| CA-52Juan Vargas vs. Jeff Belle | Juan Vargas | Jeff Belle | Safe D | D+28.3 | >99% |
Open California on the House forecast map →
Other states
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.