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Montana 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Montana, Kurt Alme (R) has a >99% chance of winning the Senate race, and Democrats are projected to win about 0.5 of Montana's 2 House seats (they hold 0 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Montana on the interactive map →Montana Senate race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: R+17.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: R+22.8 (partisan lean R+10, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open seat; independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead split the anti-Republican vote
Includes an 8-point penalty because independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead split the anti-Republican vote
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Montana does not elect a governor in 2026.
Montana House races
Montana has 2 congressional districts. Democrats hold 0 and Republicans 2. The model projects about 0.5 Democratic and 1.5 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT-1Sam Forstag vs. Aaron Flint | Sam Forstag | Aaron Flint | Toss-up | R+0.5 | 46% |
| MT-2Brian Miller vs. Troy Downing | Brian Miller | Troy Downing | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
Open Montana on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.