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Ohio 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Ohio, Sherrod Brown (D) has a 62% chance of winning the special Senate race, Amy Acton (D) has a 70% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 5.4 of Ohio's 15 House seats (they hold 5 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Ohio on the interactive map →Ohio special Senate race
- Polling average: D+2.7 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+1.8, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+4.0 (partisan lean R+5, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Special election (Vance seat); Husted appointed Jan. 2025
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Brown | Husted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 2,090 LV | 50% | 48% |
| ActiVote | 10/31/2026 | 400 LV | 50% | 50% |
| Siena College | 10/28/2026 | 500 LV | 47% | 44% |
| Echelon Insights | 10/27/2026 | 508 LV | 47% | 47% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/23/2026 | 1,200 LV | 47% | 44% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Ohio governor's race
- Polling average: D+3.2 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+4.9, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+2.5 (partisan lean R+5, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Acton | Ramaswamy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 2,090 LV | 52% | 46% |
| ActiVote | 10/31/2026 | 400 LV | 51% | 49% |
| Suffolk University | 10/28/2026 | 500 LV | 48% | 44% |
| Echelon Insights | 10/27/2026 | 508 LV | 45% | 47% |
| Verasight | 10/22/2026 | 531 LV | 46% | 45% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Ohio House races
Ohio has 15 congressional districts. Democrats hold 5 and Republicans 10. The model projects about 5.4 Democratic and 9.6 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH-1Greg Landsman vs. Eric Conroy | Greg Landsman | Eric Conroy | Likely D | D+10.1 | 95% |
| OH-2Jennifer Mazzuckelli vs. David Taylor | Jennifer Mazzuckelli | David Taylor | Safe R | R+31.3 | 0% |
| OH-3Joyce Beatty vs. Cleophus Dulaney | Joyce Beatty | Cleophus Dulaney | Safe D | D+40.3 | 100% |
| OH-4Joshua Kolasinski vs. Jim Jordan | Joshua Kolasinski | Jim Jordan | Safe R | R+31.3 | 0% |
| OH-5Brian Shaver vs. Bob Latta | Brian Shaver | Bob Latta | Safe R | R+20.5 | <1% |
| OH-6Elizabeth Kirtley vs. Michael Rulli | Elizabeth Kirtley | Michael Rulli | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
| OH-7Brian Poindexter vs. Max Miller | Brian Poindexter | Max Miller | Toss-up | R+1.0 | 43% |
| OH-8Vanessa Enoch vs. Warren Davidson | Vanessa Enoch | Warren Davidson | Likely R | R+16.2 | <1% |
| OH-9Marcy Kaptur vs. Derek Merrin | Marcy Kaptur | Derek Merrin | Tilt D | D+3.0 | 70% |
| OH-10Kristina Knickerbocker vs. Mike Turner | Kristina Knickerbocker | Mike Turner | Lean R | R+5.5 | 17% |
| OH-11Shontel Brown vs. Mike Kirchner | Shontel Brown | Mike Kirchner | Safe D | D+48.7 | 100% |
| OH-12Jerrad Christian vs. Troy Balderson | Jerrad Christian | Troy Balderson | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
| OH-13Emilia Sykes vs. Carey Coleman | Emilia Sykes | Carey Coleman | Likely D | D+16.4 | >99% |
| OH-14Maria Jukic vs. David Joyce | Maria Jukic | David Joyce | Safe R | R+18.1 | <1% |
| OH-15Don Leonard vs. Mike Carey | Don Leonard | Mike Carey | Lean R | R+5.8 | 16% |
Open Ohio on the House forecast map →
Other states
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
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- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.