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Illinois 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Illinois, Juliana Stratton (D) is all but certain to win the Senate race, JB Pritzker (D) has a >99% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 14.0 of Illinois's 17 House seats (they hold 14 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Illinois on the interactive map →Illinois Senate race
- Polling average: D+13.8 across 3 polls (newest 10/30/2026) — 24% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 33%
- Fundamentals: D+19.5 (partisan lean D+6, national environment, incumbency) — 42%
Open seat (Durbin retiring)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Stratton | Tracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 10/30/2026 | 400 LV | 56% | 44% |
| ActiVote | 10/20/2026 | 400 LV | 59% | 42% |
| Public Policy Polling | 10/06/2026 | 569 RV | 49% | 36% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Illinois governor's race
- Polling average: D+18.3 across 3 polls (newest 10/31/2026) — 26% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 33%
- Fundamentals: D+17.9 (partisan lean D+6, national environment, incumbency) — 41%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Pritzker | Bailey |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 10/31/2026 | 400 LV | 59% | 41% |
| ActiVote | 10/22/2026 | 400 LV | 59% | 41% |
| Public Policy Polling | 10/06/2026 | 569 RV | 54% | 34% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Illinois House races
Illinois has 17 congressional districts. Democrats hold 14 and Republicans 3. The model projects about 14.0 Democratic and 3.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL-1Jonathan Jackson vs. Christian Maxwell | Jonathan Jackson | Christian Maxwell | Safe D | D+36.7 | 100% |
| IL-2Donna Miller vs. Michael Noack | Donna Miller | Michael Noack | Safe D | D+34.9 | 100% |
| IL-3Delia Ramirez vs. Angel Oakley | Delia Ramirez | Angel Oakley | Safe D | D+35.5 | 100% |
| IL-4Patty Garcia vs. Lupe Castillo | Patty Garcia | Lupe Castillo | Safe D | D+33.7 | 100% |
| IL-5Mike Quigley vs. Tommy Hanson | Mike Quigley | Tommy Hanson | Safe D | D+37.9 | 100% |
| IL-6Sean Casten vs. Niki Conforti | Sean Casten | Niki Conforti | Safe D | D+18.7 | >99% |
| IL-7La Shawn Ford vs. Chad Koppie | La Shawn Ford | Chad Koppie | Safe D | D+54.1 | 100% |
| IL-8Melissa Bean vs. Jennifer Davis | Melissa Bean | Jennifer Davis | Safe D | D+19.3 | >99% |
| IL-9Daniel Biss vs. John Elleson | Daniel Biss | John Elleson | Safe D | D+36.1 | 100% |
| IL-10Brad Schneider vs. Carl Lambrecht | Brad Schneider | Carl Lambrecht | Safe D | D+29.5 | 100% |
| IL-11Bill Foster vs. Jeff Walter | Bill Foster | Jeff Walter | Safe D | D+22.3 | >99% |
| IL-12Julie Fortier vs. Mike Bost | Julie Fortier | Mike Bost | Safe R | R+32.5 | 0% |
| IL-13Nikki Budzinski vs. Jeff Wilson | Nikki Budzinski | Jeff Wilson | Safe D | D+21.1 | >99% |
| IL-14Lauren Underwood vs. James Marter | Lauren Underwood | James Marter | Safe D | D+18.7 | >99% |
| IL-15Jennifer Todd vs. Mary Miller | Jennifer Todd | Mary Miller | Safe R | R+30.1 | <1% |
| IL-16Paul Nolley vs. Darin LaHood | Paul Nolley | Darin LaHood | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| IL-17Eric Sorensen vs. Dillan Vancil | Eric Sorensen | Dillan Vancil | Safe D | D+18.7 | >99% |
Open Illinois on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.