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Texas 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Texas, James Talarico (D) has a 64% chance of winning the Senate race, Greg Abbott (R) has a 78% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 10.8 of Texas's 38 House seats (they hold 9 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Texas on the interactive map →Texas Senate race
James TalaricoDemocrat
64%Ken PaxtonRepublican
36%RatingTilt D
Projected marginD+1.7
80% rangeR+4.7 to D+8.2
Seat now held byRepublicans
- Polling average: D+3.2 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+1.8, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+4.5 (partisan lean R+6, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Open seat (Cornyn lost renomination)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Talarico | Paxton |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 2,141 LV | 51% | 47% |
| Kreate Strategies | 10/30/2026 | 900 LV | 48% | 45% |
| Data for Progress | 10/30/2026 | 712 LV | 49% | 45% |
| Quantus Insights | 10/30/2026 | 1,221 LV | 48% | 49% |
| ActiVote | 10/29/2026 | 400 LV | 52% | 48% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Texas governor's race
Gina HinojosaDemocrat
22%Greg AbbottRepublican · incumbent
78%RatingTilt R
Projected marginR+4.0
Seat now held byRepublicans
- Polling average: R+2.6 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+4.9, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+8.9 (partisan lean R+6, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Hinojosa | Abbott |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 2,141 LV | 49% | 50% |
| Kreate Strategies | 10/30/2026 | 900 LV | 47% | 49% |
| Data for Progress | 10/30/2026 | 712 LV | 47% | 48% |
| Quantus Insights | 10/30/2026 | 1,221 LV | 46% | 52% |
| ActiVote | 10/29/2026 | 400 LV | 48% | 52% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Texas House races
Texas has 38 congressional districts. Democrats hold 9 and Republicans 24 (5 vacant or new). The model projects about 10.8 Democratic and 27.2 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-1Yolanda Prince vs. Nathaniel Moran | Yolanda Prince | Nathaniel Moran | Safe R | R+34.9 | 0% |
| TX-2Shaun Finnie vs. Steve Toth | Shaun Finnie | Steve Toth | Safe R | R+17.5 | <1% |
| TX-3Evan Hunt vs. Keith Self | Evan Hunt | Keith Self | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| TX-4Jason Pearce vs. Pat Fallon | Jason Pearce | Pat Fallon | Safe R | R+20.5 | <1% |
| TX-5Chelsey Hockett vs. Lance Gooden | Chelsey Hockett | Lance Gooden | Safe R | R+18.5 | <1% |
| TX-6Danny Minton vs. Jake Ellzey | Danny Minton | Jake Ellzey | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| TX-7Lizzie Fletcher vs. Alexander Hale | Lizzie Fletcher | Alexander Hale | Safe D | D+30.7 | 100% |
| TX-8Laura Jones vs. Jessica Hart Steinmann | Laura Jones | Jessica Hart Steinmann | Safe R | R+19.9 | <1% |
| TX-9Leticia Gutierrez vs. Alex Mealer | Leticia Gutierrez | Alex Mealer | Likely R | R+11.0 | 3% |
| TX-10Caitlin Rourk vs. Chris Gober | Caitlin Rourk | Chris Gober | Likely R | R+16.6 | <1% |
| TX-11Claire Reynolds vs. August Pfluger | Claire Reynolds | August Pfluger | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
| TX-12Angela Rodriguez Prilliman vs. Craig Goldman | Angela Rodriguez Prilliman | Craig Goldman | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| TX-13Mark Nair vs. Ronny Jackson | Mark Nair | Ronny Jackson | Safe R | R+33.7 | 0% |
| TX-14Thurman Bartie vs. Randy Weber | Thurman Bartie | Randy Weber | Safe R | R+20.5 | <1% |
| TX-15Bobby Pulido vs. Monica De La Cruz | Bobby Pulido | Monica De La Cruz | Tilt R | R+3.1 | 29% |
| TX-16Veronica Escobar vs. Adam Bauman | Veronica Escobar | Adam Bauman | Safe D | D+28.3 | >99% |
| TX-17Casey Shepard vs. Pete Sessions | Casey Shepard | Pete Sessions | Safe R | R+18.5 | <1% |
| TX-18Christian Menefee vs. Ronald Whitfield | Christian Menefee | Ronald Whitfield | Safe D | D+49.9 | 100% |
| TX-19Kyle Rable vs. Tom Sell | Kyle Rable | Tom Sell | Safe R | R+34.3 | 0% |
| TX-20Joaquin Castro vs. Edgardo Rafael Baez | Joaquin Castro | Edgardo Rafael Baez | Safe D | D+34.3 | 100% |
| TX-21Kristin Hook vs. Mark Teixeira | Kristin Hook | Mark Teixeira | Safe R | R+17.2 | <1% |
| TX-22Marquette Greene-Scott vs. Trever Nehls | Marquette Greene-Scott | Trever Nehls | Safe R | R+19.4 | <1% |
| TX-23Katy Padilla Stout vs. Brandon Herrera | Katy Padilla Stout | Brandon Herrera | Lean R | R+5.6 | 17% |
| TX-24Kevin Burge vs. Beth Van Duyne | Kevin Burge | Beth Van Duyne | Likely R | R+15.1 | <1% |
| TX-25Dione Sims vs. Roger Williams | Dione Sims | Roger Williams | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| TX-26Steven Shook vs. Brandon Gill | Steven Shook | Brandon Gill | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| TX-27Tanya Lloyd vs. Michael Cloud | Tanya Lloyd | Michael Cloud | Safe R | R+18.5 | <1% |
| TX-28Henry Cuellar vs. Tano Tijerina | Henry Cuellar | Tano Tijerina | Lean D | D+8.2 | 92% |
| TX-29Sylvia Garcia vs. Martha Fierro | Sylvia Garcia | Martha Fierro | Safe D | D+35.5 | 100% |
| TX-30Frederick Haynes III vs. Everett Jackson | Frederick Haynes III | Everett Jackson | Safe D | D+43.3 | 100% |
| TX-31Justin Early vs. John Carter | Justin Early | John Carter | Safe R | R+19.4 | <1% |
| TX-32Dan Barrios vs. Jace Yarbrough | Dan Barrios | Jace Yarbrough | Likely R | R+13.7 | 1% |
| TX-33Colin Allred vs. Patrick Gillespie | Colin Allred | Patrick Gillespie | Safe D | D+34.9 | 100% |
| TX-34Vicente Gonzalez vs. Eric Flores | Vicente Gonzalez | Eric Flores | Lean D | D+6.0 | 85% |
| TX-35Johnny Garcia vs. Carlos De La Cruz | Johnny Garcia | Carlos De La Cruz | Toss-up | R+0.2 | 49% |
| TX-36Rhonda Hart vs. Brian Babin | Rhonda Hart | Brian Babin | Safe R | R+20.5 | <1% |
| TX-37Greg Casar vs. Lauren Peña | Greg Casar | Lauren Peña | Safe D | D+51.1 | 100% |
| TX-38Melissa McDonough vs. Jon Bonck | Melissa McDonough | Jon Bonck | Safe R | R+17.2 | <1% |
Open Texas on the House forecast map →
Other states
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- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.