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Maine 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Maine, Troy Jackson (D) has a 81% chance of winning the Senate race, Hannah Pingree (D) has a 98% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 1.4 of Maine's 2 House seats (they hold 2 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Maine on the interactive map →Maine Senate race
- Polling average: D+3.2 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+3.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+11.5 (partisan lean D+4, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Jackson | Collins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 1,503 LV | 52% | 47% |
| Data for Progress | 10/30/2026 | 652 LV | 50% | 45% |
| CNN / SSRS | 10/29/2026 | 783 LV | 49% | 45% |
| Echelon Insights | 10/27/2026 | 413 LV | 51% | 44% |
| Marist Poll | 10/27/2026 | 1,449 LV | 49% | 47% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Maine governor's race
- Polling average: D+10.9 across 5 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 44% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+18.2, the average of 8 forecasters — 28%
- Fundamentals: D+10.1 (partisan lean D+4, national environment, incumbency) — 28%
Independent Rick Bennett also on the ballot
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Pingree | Charles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 1,503 LV | 53% | 45% |
| CNN / SSRS | 10/29/2026 | 783 LV | 53% | 39% |
| CBS / YouGov | 10/02/2026 | 1,144 RV | 56% | 44% |
| UMass Lowell | 9/24/2026 | 650 LV | 49% | 38% |
| CNN / SSRS | 9/09/2026 | 880 LV | 52% | 39% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Maine House races
Maine has 2 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 0. The model projects about 1.4 Democratic and 0.6 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME-1Chellie Pingree vs. Ronald Russell | Chellie Pingree | Ronald Russell | Safe D | D+28.3 | >99% |
| ME-2 FlipMatthew Dunlap vs. Paul LePage | Matthew Dunlap | Paul LePage | Toss-up | R+0.9 | 43% |
Open Maine on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.