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Pennsylvania 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro (D) is all but certain to win the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 9.9 of Pennsylvania's 17 House seats (they hold 7 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Pennsylvania on the interactive map →Pennsylvania governor's race
- Polling average: D+23.6 across 10 polls (newest 10/22/2026) — 45% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 28%
- Fundamentals: D+8.1 (partisan lean R+1, national environment, incumbency) — 27%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Shapiro | Garrity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall | 10/22/2026 | LV | 59% | 36% |
| ActiVote | 10/21/2026 | 400 LV | 62% | 39% |
| Bravo Group | 10/19/2026 | 628 RV | 58% | 28% |
| Z to A Research | 10/09/2026 | 630 LV | 53% | 34% |
| Susquehanna Polling | 10/07/2026 | 700 LV | 52% | 31% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Pennsylvania has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Pennsylvania House races
Pennsylvania has 17 congressional districts. Democrats hold 7 and Republicans 10. The model projects about 9.9 Democratic and 7.1 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-1 FlipBob Harvie vs. Brian Fitzpatrick | Bob Harvie | Brian Fitzpatrick | Tilt D | D+3.6 | 74% |
| PA-2Brendan Boyle vs. Jessica Arriaga | Brendan Boyle | Jessica Arriaga | Safe D | D+37.9 | 100% |
| PA-3Chris Rabb vs. — | Chris Rabb | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| PA-4Madeleine Dean vs. Aurora Stuski | Madeleine Dean | Aurora Stuski | Safe D | D+24.7 | >99% |
| PA-5Mary Gay Scanlon vs. Nicholas Manganaro | Mary Gay Scanlon | Nicholas Manganaro | Safe D | D+33.1 | 100% |
| PA-6Chrissy Houlahan vs. Marty Young | Chrissy Houlahan | Marty Young | Safe D | D+22.3 | >99% |
| PA-7 FlipBob Brooks vs. Ryan Mackenzie | Bob Brooks | Ryan Mackenzie | Lean D | D+5.6 | 84% |
| PA-8 FlipPaige Cognetti vs. Rob Bresnahan | Paige Cognetti | Rob Bresnahan | Tilt D | D+1.6 | 61% |
| PA-9Rachel Wallace vs. Dan Meuser | Rachel Wallace | Dan Meuser | Safe R | R+28.9 | <1% |
| PA-10 FlipJanelle Stelson vs. Scott Perry | Janelle Stelson | Scott Perry | Tilt D | D+2.8 | 69% |
| PA-11Nancy Mannion vs. Lloyd Smucker | Nancy Mannion | Lloyd Smucker | Safe R | R+19.4 | <1% |
| PA-12Summer Lee vs. James Hayes | Summer Lee | James Hayes | Safe D | D+27.1 | >99% |
| PA-13Beth Farnham vs. John Joyce | Beth Farnham | John Joyce | Safe R | R+33.7 | 0% |
| PA-14Alan Bradstock vs. Guy Reschenthaler | Alan Bradstock | Guy Reschenthaler | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
| PA-15Ray Bilger vs. Glenn Thompson | Ray Bilger | Glenn Thompson | Safe R | R+28.9 | <1% |
| PA-16Justin Wagner vs. Mike Kelly | Justin Wagner | Mike Kelly | Safe R | R+19.4 | <1% |
| PA-17Chris Deluzio vs. Tony Guy | Chris Deluzio | Tony Guy | Safe D | D+18.7 | >99% |
Open Pennsylvania on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.