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Michigan 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed (D) has a 84% chance of winning the Senate race, Jocelyn Benson (D) has a 93% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 8.0 of Michigan's 13 House seats (they hold 6 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Michigan on the interactive map →Michigan Senate race
- Polling average: D+4.6 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+4.8, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+7.5 (partisan lean even, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Open seat (Peters retiring)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | El-Sayed | Rogers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 2,093 LV | 51% | 47% |
| Data for Progress | 10/30/2026 | 622 LV | 50% | 46% |
| Michigan State Univ. | 10/29/2026 | 1,383 LV | 51% | 43% |
| CNN / SSRS | 10/29/2026 | 768 LV | 49% | 42% |
| Mitchell Research | 10/28/2026 | 636 LV | 51% | 44% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Michigan governor's race
- Polling average: D+8.3 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+9.5, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+4.5 (partisan lean even, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Benson | James |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 2,093 LV | 52% | 46% |
| Data for Progress | 10/30/2026 | 622 LV | 52% | 43% |
| Michigan State Univ. | 10/29/2026 | 1,383 LV | 51% | 42% |
| CNN / SSRS | 10/29/2026 | 768 LV | 53% | 41% |
| Glengariff Group | 10/27/2026 | 600 LV | 51% | 45% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Michigan House races
Michigan has 13 congressional districts. Democrats hold 6 and Republicans 7. The model projects about 8.0 Democratic and 5.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-1Callie Barr vs. Jack Bergman | Callie Barr | Jack Bergman | Safe R | R+18.3 | <1% |
| MI-2Ben Ambrose vs. John Moolenaar | Ben Ambrose | John Moolenaar | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
| MI-3Hillary Scholten vs. Terri DeBoer | Hillary Scholten | Terri DeBoer | Safe D | D+19.9 | >99% |
| MI-4 FlipSean McCann vs. Bill Huizenga | Sean McCann | Bill Huizenga | Toss-up | D+0.3 | 52% |
| MI-5Christian Vukasovich vs. Tim Walberg | Christian Vukasovich | Tim Walberg | Safe R | R+21.7 | <1% |
| MI-6Debbie Dingell vs. Heather Smiley | Debbie Dingell | Heather Smiley | Safe D | D+29.5 | 100% |
| MI-7 FlipWilliam Lawrence vs. Tom Barrett | William Lawrence | Tom Barrett | Lean D | D+5.3 | 82% |
| MI-8Kristen McDonald Rivet vs. Thomas Smith | Kristen McDonald Rivet | Thomas Smith | Likely D | D+14.3 | 99% |
| MI-9Ray Pooley vs. Lisa McClain | Ray Pooley | Lisa McClain | Safe R | R+25.3 | <1% |
| MI-10 FlipChristina Hines vs. Mike Bouchard Jr. | Christina Hines | Mike Bouchard Jr. | Tilt D | D+2.2 | 65% |
| MI-11Jeremy Moss vs. Ethan Baker | Jeremy Moss | Ethan Baker | Safe D | D+24.1 | >99% |
| MI-12Rashida Tlaib vs. James Hooper | Rashida Tlaib | James Hooper | Safe D | D+40.3 | 100% |
| MI-13Donavan McKinney vs. T. P. Nykoriak | Donavan McKinney | T. P. Nykoriak | Safe D | D+39.7 | 100% |
Open Michigan on the House forecast map →
Other states
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.