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New Mexico 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In New Mexico, Ben Ray Luján (D) has a >99% chance of winning the Senate race, Deb Haaland (D) has a 95% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 2.9 of New Mexico's 3 House seats (they hold 3 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See New Mexico on the interactive map →New Mexico Senate race
- Polling average: D+17.6 across 2 polls (newest 10/05/2026) — 5% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+21.2, the average of 12 forecasters — 39%
- Fundamentals: D+18.5 (partisan lean D+4, national environment, incumbency) — 56%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Luján | Marker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 10/05/2026 | 567 LV | 54% | 36% |
| RMG Research | 9/01/2026 | 516 LV | 53% | 38% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
New Mexico governor's race
- Polling average: D+7.0 across 4 polls (newest 10/11/2026) — 12% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+17.5, the average of 8 forecasters — 37%
- Fundamentals: D+10.1 (partisan lean D+4, national environment, incumbency) — 51%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Haaland | Hull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling | 10/11/2026 | 1,125 LV | 49% | 42% |
| SurveyUSA | 10/05/2026 | 567 LV | 47% | 41% |
| Research & Polling | 8/30/2026 | 516 LV | 49% | 43% |
| BSP Research | 8/21/2026 | 800 RV | 41% | 24% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
New Mexico House races
New Mexico has 3 congressional districts. Democrats hold 3 and Republicans 0. The model projects about 2.9 Democratic and 0.1 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM-1Melanie Stansbury vs. Didi Okpareke | Melanie Stansbury | Didi Okpareke | Safe D | D+23.5 | >99% |
| NM-2Gabe Vasquez vs. Greg Cunningham | Gabe Vasquez | Greg Cunningham | Likely D | D+10.2 | 96% |
| NM-3Teresa Leger Fernández vs. Martin Zamora | Teresa Leger Fernández | Martin Zamora | Likely D | D+16.9 | 99% |
Open New Mexico on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.