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Missouri 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Missouri, Democrats are projected to win about 2.2 of Missouri's 8 House seats (they hold 2 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Missouri on the interactive map →Missouri has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Missouri does not elect a governor in 2026.
Missouri House races
Missouri has 8 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 6. The model projects about 2.2 Democratic and 5.8 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO-1Wesley Bell vs. Paul Berry | Wesley Bell | Paul Berry | Safe D | D+49.9 | 100% |
| MO-2Fred Wellman vs. Ann Wagner | Fred Wellman | Ann Wagner | Tilt R | R+4.4 | 22% |
| MO-3Bethany Mann vs. Bob Onder | Bethany Mann | Bob Onder | Safe R | R+21.7 | <1% |
| MO-4Jordan Herrera vs. Mark Alford | Jordan Herrera | Mark Alford | Safe R | R+31.3 | 0% |
| MO-5Emanuel Cleaver vs. Rick Brattin | Emanuel Cleaver | Rick Brattin | Safe D | D+29.5 | 100% |
| MO-6Josh Smead vs. Chris Stigall | Josh Smead | Chris Stigall | Safe R | R+27.1 | <1% |
| MO-7Missi Hesketh vs. Eric Burlison | Missi Hesketh | Eric Burlison | Safe R | R+31.3 | 0% |
| MO-8Chris Reichard vs. Jason Smith | Chris Reichard | Jason Smith | Safe R | R+38.5 | 0% |
Open Missouri on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.