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Idaho 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Idaho, Jim Risch (R) is all but certain to win the Senate race, Brad Little (R) is all but certain to win the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 0.0 of Idaho's 2 House seats (they hold 0 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Idaho on the interactive map →Idaho Senate race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: R+33.8 (partisan lean R+18, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
No Democratic nominee; independent Todd Achilles is the main challenger
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Idaho governor's race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: R+25.7 (partisan lean R+18, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open on the governor forecast map →
Idaho House races
Idaho has 2 congressional districts. Democrats hold 0 and Republicans 2. The model projects about 0.0 Democratic and 2.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID-1Kaylee Peterson vs. Russ Fulcher | Kaylee Peterson | Russ Fulcher | Safe R | R+32.5 | 0% |
| ID-2Ellie Gilbreath vs. Mike Simpson | Ellie Gilbreath | Mike Simpson | Safe R | R+21.7 | <1% |
Open Idaho on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.