PoliGovPoliGov › 2026 Forecast › Alaska
Alaska 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Alaska, Dan Sullivan (R) has a 68% chance of winning the Senate race, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) has a 66% chance of winning the governor's race, and the state's one House seat is rated Lean R, according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Alaska on the interactive map →Alaska Senate race
- Polling average: D+3.4 across 3 polls (newest 10/03/2026) — 8% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+1.5, the average of 12 forecasters — 38%
- Fundamentals: R+7.5 (partisan lean R+6, national environment, incumbency) — 54%
Top-four primary with ranked-choice general; head-to-head polling used
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Peltola | Sullivan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 10/03/2026 | 504 LV | 50% | 43% |
| Quantus Insights | 10/02/2026 | 758 LV | 47% | 47% |
| Change Research | 8/17/2026 | 605 LV | 47% | 41% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Alaska governor's race
- Polling average: D+2.9 across 7 polls (newest 10/26/2026) — 49% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+6.9, the average of 8 forecasters — 27%
- Fundamentals: R+3.9 (partisan lean R+6, national environment, incumbency) — 24%
Top-four primary with ranked-choice general; three Republicans advanced, so Republican votes are pooled
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Kreiss-Tomkins | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | 10/26/2026 | 1,068 LV | 51% | 46.2% |
| Data for Progress | 10/20/2026 | 694 LV | 46% | 44.8% |
| Alaska Survey Research | 10/20/2026 | 1,568 LV | 50% | 46% |
| Alaska Survey Research | 10/06/2026 | 1,512 LV | 48% | 47% |
| Siena College | 10/04/2026 | 504 LV | 40% | 40.8% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Alaska House races
Alaska elects one at-large representative.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-ALEric Hafner vs. Nick Begich III | Eric Hafner | Nick Begich III | Lean R | R+8.0 | 9% |
Open Alaska on the House forecast map →
Other states
- Alabama
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.