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North Carolina 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In North Carolina, Roy Cooper (D) has a 98% chance of winning the Senate race, and Democrats are projected to win about 4.5 of North Carolina's 14 House seats (they hold 4 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See North Carolina on the interactive map →North Carolina Senate race
- Polling average: D+10.9 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+12.7, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+5.5 (partisan lean R+1, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Open seat (Tillis retiring)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Cooper | Whatley |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 2,130 LV | 55% | 44% |
| High Point Univ. | 10/28/2026 | 620 LV | 54% | 40% |
| Quantus Insights | 10/26/2026 | 722 LV | 52% | 43% |
| Harper Polling | 10/22/2026 | 600 LV | 49% | 39% |
| ActiVote | 10/20/2026 | 400 LV | 57% | 43% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
North Carolina does not elect a governor in 2026.
North Carolina House races
North Carolina has 14 congressional districts. Democrats hold 4 and Republicans 10. The model projects about 4.5 Democratic and 9.5 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-1Don Davis vs. Laurie Buckhout | Don Davis | Laurie Buckhout | Tilt D | D+2.7 | 69% |
| NC-2Deborah Ross vs. Eugene Douglass | Deborah Ross | Eugene Douglass | Safe D | D+35.5 | 100% |
| NC-3Raymond Smith Jr. vs. Greg Murphy | Raymond Smith Jr. | Greg Murphy | Likely R | R+10.4 | 4% |
| NC-4Valerie Foushee vs. Max Ganorkar | Valerie Foushee | Max Ganorkar | Safe D | D+42.7 | 100% |
| NC-5Chuck Hubbard vs. Virginia Foxx | Chuck Hubbard | Virginia Foxx | Likely R | R+15.4 | <1% |
| NC-6Cyril Jefferson vs. Addison McDowell | Cyril Jefferson | Addison McDowell | Safe R | R+17.6 | <1% |
| NC-7Kimberly Hardy vs. David Rouzer | Kimberly Hardy | David Rouzer | Likely R | R+13.1 | 2% |
| NC-8Colby Watson vs. Mark Harris | Colby Watson | Mark Harris | Safe R | R+18.5 | <1% |
| NC-9Richard Ojeda vs. Richard Hudson | Richard Ojeda | Richard Hudson | Likely R | R+12.5 | 2% |
| NC-10Ashley Bell vs. Pat Harrigan | Ashley Bell | Pat Harrigan | Safe R | R+17.6 | <1% |
| NC-11 FlipJamie Ager vs. Jennifer Balkcom | Jamie Ager | Jennifer Balkcom | Tilt D | D+2.3 | 66% |
| NC-12Alma Adams vs. Jack Codiga | Alma Adams | Jack Codiga | Safe D | D+43.9 | 100% |
| NC-13Paul Barringer vs. Brad Knott | Paul Barringer | Brad Knott | Likely R | R+12.0 | 2% |
| NC-14Lakesha Womack vs. Tim Moore | Lakesha Womack | Tim Moore | Likely R | R+15.6 | <1% |
Open North Carolina on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.