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Utah 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Utah, Democrats are projected to win about 1.0 of Utah's 4 House seats (they hold 0 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Utah on the interactive map →Utah has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Utah does not elect a governor in 2026.
Utah House races
Utah has 4 congressional districts. Democrats hold 0 and Republicans 3 (1 vacant or new). The model projects about 1.0 Democratic and 3.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT-1Ben McAdams vs. Riley Owen | Ben McAdams | Riley Owen | Safe D | D+27.7 | >99% |
| UT-2Peter Crosby vs. Blake Moore | Peter Crosby | Blake Moore | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
| UT-3Kent Udell vs. Celeste Maloy | Kent Udell | Celeste Maloy | Safe R | R+31.3 | 0% |
| UT-4Jonny Larsen vs. Mike Kennedy | Jonny Larsen | Mike Kennedy | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
Open Utah on the House forecast map →
Other states
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- Ohio
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- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.