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Nebraska 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Nebraska, Pete Ricketts (R) has a 87% chance of winning the Senate race, Jim Pillen (R) has a 95% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 1.0 of Nebraska's 3 House seats (they hold 0 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Nebraska on the interactive map →Nebraska Senate race
- Polling average: R+2.1 across 7 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+7.8, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+17.8 (partisan lean R+10, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Independent Dan Osborn (no Democratic nominee); says he will not caucus with either party
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Osborn | Ricketts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 1,979 LV | 49% | 49% |
| Siena College | 10/31/2026 | 809 LV | 41% | 46% |
| Echelon Insights | 10/27/2026 | 407 LV | 46% | 47% |
| National Public Affairs | 10/20/2026 | 800 LV | 43% | 46% |
| YouGov | 10/06/2026 | 1,808 LV | 48% | 47% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Nebraska governor's race
- Polling average: R+6.5 across 7 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+11.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+14.5 (partisan lean R+10, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Walz | Pillen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11/01/2026 | 1,979 LV | 47% | 50% |
| Siena College | 10/31/2026 | 809 LV | 40% | 53% |
| Echelon Insights | 10/27/2026 | 407 LV | 40% | 47% |
| National Public Affairs | 10/20/2026 | 800 LV | 40% | 44% |
| YouGov | 10/06/2026 | 1,808 LV | 43% | 44% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Nebraska House races
Nebraska has 3 congressional districts. Democrats hold 0 and Republicans 3. The model projects about 1.0 Democratic and 2.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE-1Chris Backemeyer vs. Mike Flood | Chris Backemeyer | Mike Flood | Likely R | R+10.2 | 4% |
| NE-2 FlipDenise Powell vs. Brinker Harding | Denise Powell | Brinker Harding | Likely D | D+14.5 | 99% |
| NE-3Becky Stille vs. Adrian Smith | Becky Stille | Adrian Smith | Safe R | R+38.5 | 0% |
Open Nebraska on the House forecast map →
Other states
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
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- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.