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South Carolina 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In South Carolina, Darline Graham (R) has a 78% chance of winning the Senate race, Alan Wilson (R) has a 96% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats are projected to win about 1.2 of South Carolina's 7 House seats (they hold 1 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See South Carolina on the interactive map →South Carolina Senate race
- Polling average: R+2.3 across 8 polls (newest 10/29/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+4.8, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+9.5 (partisan lean R+8, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Appointed incumbent Darline Graham, nominated in runoff
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Andrews | Graham |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina Univ. | 10/29/2026 | 955 LV | 47% | 51% |
| Siena College | 10/28/2026 | 707 LV | 48% | 48% |
| The Citadel | 10/27/2026 | 890 LV | 39% | 43% |
| Targoz Market Research | 10/27/2026 | 895 LV | 46% | 47% |
| Trafalgar Group | 10/18/2026 | 1,095 LV | 46% | 49% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
South Carolina governor's race
- Polling average: R+9.3 across 3 polls (newest 10/28/2026) — 46% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+18.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 27%
- Fundamentals: R+6.7 (partisan lean R+8, national environment, incumbency) — 27%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Johnson | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 10/28/2026 | 707 LV | 44% | 51% |
| The Citadel | 10/27/2026 | 890 LV | 31% | 42% |
| Targoz Market Research | 10/27/2026 | 895 LV | 41% | 51% |
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
South Carolina House races
South Carolina has 7 congressional districts. Democrats hold 1 and Republicans 6. The model projects about 1.2 Democratic and 5.8 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC-1Nancy Lacore vs. Jenny Costa Honeycutt | Nancy Lacore | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | Lean R | R+4.5 | 21% |
| SC-2Zyon Khalifa vs. Joe Wilson | Zyon Khalifa | Joe Wilson | Likely R | R+15.3 | <1% |
| SC-3Eunice Lehmacher vs. Sheri Biggs | Eunice Lehmacher | Sheri Biggs | Safe R | R+31.3 | 0% |
| SC-4Courtney McClain vs. William Timmons | Courtney McClain | William Timmons | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| SC-5Mallory Dittmer vs. Wes Climer | Mallory Dittmer | Wes Climer | Safe R | R+18.1 | <1% |
| SC-6Jim Clyburn vs. John Peterson | Jim Clyburn | John Peterson | Safe D | D+30.7 | 100% |
| SC-7John Vincent vs. Russell Fry | John Vincent | Russell Fry | Safe R | R+20.5 | <1% |
Open South Carolina on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.