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Mississippi 2026 Election Forecast
Updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET with the latest polls · 40,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Mississippi, Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) has a 98% chance of winning the Senate race, and Democrats are projected to win about 1.0 of Mississippi's 4 House seats (they hold 1 now), according to PoliGov's forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Mississippi on the interactive map →Mississippi Senate race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: R+14.5, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: R+17.5 (partisan lean R+11, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Mississippi does not elect a governor in 2026.
Mississippi House races
Mississippi has 4 congressional districts. Democrats hold 1 and Republicans 3. The model projects about 1.0 Democratic and 3.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS-1Cliff Johnson vs. Trent Kelly | Cliff Johnson | Trent Kelly | Safe R | R+27.7 | <1% |
| MS-2Bennie Thompson vs. Ron Eller | Bennie Thompson | Ron Eller | Safe D | D+28.3 | >99% |
| MS-3Michael Chiaradio vs. Michael Guest | Michael Chiaradio | Michael Guest | Safe R | R+22.9 | <1% |
| MS-4Jeffrey Hulum III vs. Mike Ezell | Jeffrey Hulum III | Mike Ezell | Safe R | R+31.3 | 0% |
Open Mississippi on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.