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2026 Forecast Scorecard

Waiting for results · The forecast shown here was last updated Nov 2, 2026, 4:10 AM ET.

This page compares every PoliGov projection with the actual result. Races appear here as they are called on election night, starting when the first polls close at 6 PM Eastern on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

For each office it will show how many races the forecast got right, a Brier score (the standard accuracy measure for probability forecasts: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what you would get by calling every race a coin flip), whether races the model called "likely" really were won about as often as it said, and the biggest upsets.

See the forecast →